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The Collapse of Stalinism

Part one

73. In the short term, the idea that capitalist Russia will emerge as a new economic giant is utopian. Despite its mineral wealth, Russia will be economically dominated by world imperialism. On the basis of present market exchange rates, Russia's annualised GNP in the first quarter of 1992 was smaller than Belgium's. Therefore, capitalist Russia is likely to develop as a dependent economy, closer in character to semi-developed Brazil than an advanced capitalist country such as Japan or Germany. In Russia, however, society will be overwhelmingly industrialised, without the large rural population and feudal relations which in part, still exist in Brazil today. Militarily, a capitalist Russia would still be a mighty power, especially in its own spheres of influence.

74. Russia will face enormous disadvantages both because of its low productivity and also because of the tendency for the price of raw materials, on which it will be heavily reliant, to fall against the price of manufactured goods. Even its massive oil reserves do not assure its economic future. Russia already faces the loss of its former markets, as Ukraine and other republics and the countries of eastern Europe turn towards the Middle East for oil supplies. In addition they are encountering enormous production problems because of outdated technology and a collapsing infrastructure. Whereas Soviet oil output was nearly 570 million tonnes four years ago, Moscow economists are predicting that this could halve by the mid-1990's. They warn that on present trends Russia could stop being an oil exporter.

75. Without huge foreign investment the introduction of new technology, on the scale needed, is impossible. There can be a combined and uneven development with islands of high-tech industry, mostly foreign dominated, surrounded by a sea of industrial backwardness. In addition to economic factors, flowing from the limitations of world capitalism, there are important political factors precluding modernisation on the scale required. A huge proletariat is concentrated in heavy industry and other sectors which face rationalisation or closure. A regime of workers' democracy would have to confront the problem of modernisation of production, though this would be accomplished democratically, with the full involvement of the workforce.

76. Carried out under the blind play of market forces, this would mean a social catastrophe. The modernisation and reduction of heavy industry accomplished by the bourgeois in the USA, and western Europe, during the 1980's took place in conditions of boom. Even then, this wholesale destruction of productive forces provoked massive social upheavals, such as the British miners' strike and the US steel strike. These problems are dwarfed by the task confronting nascent capitalism in Russia.

77. Russia and the other regimes to emerge from the USSR are experiencing an unprecedented economic collapse aggravated by the break up of the Union and the resulting disintegration of the mutual economic relations. Far from arresting the economic decline, savage pro-capitalist policies have aggravated the situation. In Russia during January, the first month of Yeltsin's "shock therapy", coal output fell by 10 per cent, oil output by 12 per cent and steel production fell by 27 per cent. Yeltsin's deputy Prime Minister, Yegor Gaidar, predicts an overall fall in production of 12 per cent in 1992.

78. As the Marxists warned, far from leading to Western living standards, the switch to capitalism is inflicting the conditions of the ex-colonial world upon the masses. Since January 1992 there has been a 40 per cent fall in living standards. 90 per cent of the population of Moscow have been driven below the poverty line by Yeltsin's price rises. This catastrophe has resulted in Moscow street traders selling meat from slaughtered dogs and cats.

79. Capitalism is emerging amid an orgy of criminality, speculation and gangsterism. In Murmansk, the mafia, working through former bureaucrats, has acquired most of the newly privatised shops, allowing it to create artificial shortages and thereby rig prices. The senior police officer claimed that "the city has practically been bought by the Azerbaijanis". As elsewhere, organised crime is dominated by gangs from the southern republics of the Caucasus and Central Asia. This undoubtedly introduces a further complicating factor, as workers' hostility to the speculators assumes a racial form and provides a breeding ground for Great Russian chauvinism. The recent Moscow taxi drivers' strike, as well as opposing price rises, demanded the expulsion of people from the Caucasus from the city.

80. The disintegration of the former Soviet Union raises a nightmare scenario for world capitalism. The uncontrollable separatist tendencies which have been unleashed threaten to destabilise bordering countries and world relations as a whole. From an economic, military and even ecological point of view, these developments have alarmed Imperialism. West European capitalism fears a potential flood of refugees fleeing economic collapse and civil war in parts of the former USSR and the Balkans.

81. Wrangling over the division of the Soviet nuclear arsenal has raised the possibility of some of the central Asian republics retaining their nuclear capability, and the possibility of the sale of nuclear weapons and technology to other countries. For these reasons, initially, the imperialists backed Gorbachev in his attempt to hold together a looser union structure. When this failed they supported the formation of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), as an attempt to arrest the tendencies towards complete economic and national separation. From its inception, however, the CIS began to break apart.

82. These developments demonstrate that capitalism is incapable of playing a progressive role. The shift towards capitalism has resulted in the resurrection of countless small and economically unviable nation states. Lenin and Trotsky explained that, from the late nineteenth century onwards, capitalism faced two fundamental obstacles to the development of the productive forces: the private ownership of the means of production and the narrow limits of the nation state. Both these barriers were partially overcome, although in a distorted form, under Stalinism, at least inside the borders of the USSR. The failure of Stalinism, given Imperialism's continued domination of the world economy, is the final answer to the Stalinist theory of "socialism in one country".

83. In the early 1920s, on the basis of Lenin's policy towards the different nationalities, the Soviet Union grouped together the oppressed nations of Tsarist Russia in a voluntary federation. This was an enormously progressive historical achievement, even despite the subsequent crimes of Stalinism in the field of the national question. But although the basis for solving the national question was laid in the October Revolution, this could only ultimately be resolved by the victory of socialism internationally. Even then national divisions will not automatically disappear. This will require the conscious intervention of the working class of all nationalities to develop an internationalist policy.

84. The exhaustion of the Russian revolution and the resulting victory of the Stalinist bureaucracy ensured the survival of the national question within Soviet society. The authoritarian rule of the bureaucracy inevitably came into collision with the national aspirations and cultural demands of the peoples and nations of the USSR. For an entire historical period the national question seemed to be held in check by a combination of rapid development of the productive forces on one hand and repression on the other. The period of Stalinism's decay and disintegration, however, unleashed powerful and uncontrollable centrifugal forces in the Soviet Union.

85. With a strong independent workers' movement and a revolutionary leadership sensitive to their national demands, the movement of the nationalities of the Soviet Union could have developed towards the political revolution and the re-creation of a genuinely free and voluntary federation of workers' democracies. Such a leadership, while standing for the maximum integration of the economies of the USSR, and explaining the advantages of federation, would have implacably defended the right of all republics to self determination.

86. The diversion of the political revolution onto the road of counter-revolution has given a savage twist to the national question. Among the non-Russian masses, hatred of Stalinism inevitably acquired a national colouration. The desire to be free from the Great Russian bureaucracy's domination, without a lead from the working class, led to the growth on national independence movements increasingly dominated by bourgeois counter-revolutionaries including many last minute defectors from Stalinism.

Today the situation is more complicated even than under Tsarism because, despite Stalinism, the very development of the USSR created new nations out of tribal societies. The national question is further complicated by the monstrous crimes of Stalinism. The bureaucracy cynically played the divide and rule card, mimicking the bourgeois in the imperialist countries. Whole populations were transported from their home territories and ethnic Russians were settled in the cities of other republics.

88. On a capitalist basis, Russia and the other republics of the CIS face "Indianisation" - with inevitable outbreaks of national, ethnic and religious conflict. There is not a single uncontested border in the territory of the old Soviet Union. Eastern Europe will not be far behind this process as events in the old Yugoslavia demonstrate. The Mad House of Europe, to which Trotsky referred in the 1930s, has been rebuilt on the ashes of Stalinism. National conflicts are looming in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria. There are disputes between Poland and Lithuania over borders and the rights of Poles living around Vilnius. Every reactionary movement in Germany raises the question of the "lost" territories in the east. The continuing weakness of workers' organisations and the moves towards restoration have strengthened nationalism and led to a resurfacing of old prejudices. Jews, Gypsies, and other minorities once again face the horror of pogroms.

89. The formation of the CIS failed to arrest this process. In reality the CIS is no more than an agreement to meet and disagree about a series of contentious issues. All the members of the CIS are forming their own national armed forces, some to fight wars against fellow CIS members, as in the case of Azerbaijan and Armenia. A conflict is rapidly developing in Trans-Dneistr where the ethnically mixed population is opposed to the Romanisation of Moldova. At its May summit, only 6 of the 11 CIS heads of state bothered to attend. While a defence agreement has been reached between Russia and most of the central Asian republics, who need Russia to counterbalance the new Afghan regime and China, this agreement is unlikely to be joined by all the CIS republics.

90. With a ferocious trade war developing between its members, the CIS does not even function as an effective trading bloc. Conditions of virtual economic siege exist between some republics, such as Russia and Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia and Estonia, Turkmenistan and Ukraine. Not surprisingly, Gorbachev has likened the atmosphere in the former USSR to a lunatic asylum. The nascent bourgeois understand that these developments are enormously aggravating the economic crisis, but the process has acquired an uncontrollable momentum. It is hard to imagine worse conditions in which to re-establish capitalism.

91. The old USSR was economically organised as a single unit. The shattering of these ties has dislocated economic life in all the former republics. In Moscow, for example, the ambulance service is breaking down from a shortage of spare parts. Supplies of tyres from Armenia, electrical wiring from Azerbaijan and headlights from Lithuania no longer arrive.

92. This break up reflects the final shattering of the old Soviet bureaucracy on national lines. A frantic struggle is taking place between the rival national groupings to secure for themselves the most advantageous position in the new capitalist order. Outside Russia, the new bourgeois governments are attempting to maintain their position by basing themselves on the nationalist sentiments of the non-Russian masses, determined to be free of Russian domination. Each of these unstable bourgeois regimes invariable tries to divert the mounting anger of the population against other nationalities or local minorities.

93. At the same time these regimes are attempting to play off the imperialist countries against Russia in the struggle for markets, investment and new sources of raw materials. Increasingly, the Russian regime will emerge in an imperialist role towards the weaker former Soviet republics, using its enormous economic weight to dominate them. While the Great Russian bureaucracy dominated the old USSR, Russia actually subsidised most of the other republics, mainly with cheap raw materials. To a lesser extent, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kirghizia were also net subsidisers of the other republics. Russia's decision to charge world prices for its oil and gas exports has already dealt a crippling blow to most of the other republics.

94. The southern republics are increasingly looking to Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran, to develop economic links. Turkmenistan, for example, has agreed a deal with Iran for the import of crude oil, as has Ukraine. Turkey, Pakistan and Iran have revived their regional trading bloc (ECO), which has drawn in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The Turkish bourgeois are exploiting the common Turkic language in most of the southern republics to establish a role in the region.

95. At the same time the threat of social upheavals in the southern republics has ominous implications for neighbouring states. Full-scale war between Azerbaijan and Armenia would inevitably have repercussions inside Turkey, which already faces a growing rebellion from its Kurdish population. Iran would also be affected because of its ten million-strong Azeri minority. The US secretary of state Baker's visit to the central Asian republics was an attempt to counter Iran's increasing approaches into the region. Though not immediately posed, US imperialism fears the growth of "radical" Islamic fundamentalist regimes coming to power in the future. The victory of Islamic reaction in Afghanistan and the possible break up of the country along ethnic lines, is a further destabilising force in the region.

96. At this stage, however, most of the central Asian republics look to Turkish capitalism, rather than its Islamicised neighbours. The main reason for this is the pro-capitalist position of the central Asian regimes and the fact that popular illusions in the marker are much greater than the growth of support for Islam at this stage. Turkey is seen as a bridge to the West and the EC. The more secular character of the Turkish state has a greater appeal to the masses, especially the women who stand to lose most in a society dominated by Islamic fundamentalism.

97. The secession of Ukraine delivered the final blow to the USSR and now threatens the survival of the CIS. With 18 per cent of the population of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine has a powerful industrial base which accounted for 17.2 per cent of the total Soviet industrial output. The nascent Ukrainian bourgeois have aspirations to become a European power and are increasingly pulling away from their former ties with Russia, turning to the West for support. The decision to launch a separate Ukrainian currency and the developing trade war with Russia shattered hopes for a new form of economic union. Now Ukraine has struck a deal with Iran for imports of oil and has to reduce its dependency on Russia. Kravchuk has raised the idea of a regional economic bloc with Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia as a step towards greater integration with the EC.

98. However, the ferocious trade war with Russia is exacting a massive toll on Ukraine's economy. Despite his comfortable victory in the presidential election in December 1991, Kravchuk's position, like all the post-Soviet rulers, is precarious. Plummeting living standards following January's price rises, have provoked enormous dissatisfaction. To head off opposition to his economic policies, Kravchuk is banging the drum of Ukrainian nationalism and leaning on his former opponents in the nationalist movement. But this is an extremely dangerous position, especially because of the 12 million ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. In Ukraine's referendum a majority of the ethnic Russians voted for independence. A big factor in this was the belief that the Soviet Union was bankrupt, and that independence would lead to an improvement in Ukraine's economic position. As these workers feel the brunt of redundancies, closures and collapsing living standards. Kravchuk risks inflaming nationalism among the Russian minority.

99. Without a powerful proletarian movement to cut across these developments, the shift to capitalism has set the two most important republics of the former Soviet Union on a collision course. This conflict is developing with an explosive logic of its own. While all-out war between them is unlikely because of the existence of nuclear weapons in both countries, and the catastrophic human and economic cost of even a conventional war, increasing economic and territorial disputes and even military skirmishes could not be ruled out. In some respects there are parallels with the position of India and Pakistan, where an uneasy armed truce, with recurring border skirmishes, has existed since the 1971 war.

100. Kravchuk's decision to establish a separate Ukrainian army, wrecked attempts to preserve a unified CIS military structure. Russia has recently responded by announcing the formation of a Russian army which will comprise the bulk of the old Soviet forces. A chaotic scramble has developed between Russia and Ukraine for control of decisive military units, such as the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian regime has succeeded in wooing important sections of the officer caste, sanctioned there, including many ethnic Russian officers who see a more secure economic future for themselves in Ukraine. Of 17,000 former CIS officers serving in the Kiev military district, 13,000 agreed to join the new Ukrainain army.

101. The dispute over Crimea is symptomatic of these increasing tensions. To exert pressure on Ukraine, the Russian regime has questioned the status of the Crimean peninsular which has ceded to Ukraine in 1954, and where ethnic Russians are in a majority. The Crimean population is tiring of being used as a bargaining counter between the two republics, and support for a referendum on independence is growing. Nationalists in Russia, however, are undoubtedly attempting to manipulate this. This is being fiercely resisted by the Kravchuk government, especially because of the military importance of Crimea as the base of the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian regime is now raising the idea of retaining Sevastopol as a Ukrainian controlled enclave, if Crimea secedes from Ukraine.

102. On a capitalist basis, therefore, the tendencies towards national disintegration have clearly not played themselves out. Further disintegration, beyond the formation of fifteen separate republics is possible, paralysing economic life and raising the spectre of a hundred Yugoslavias. Even within Russia, separatist movements are gaining momentum, for example, in Chechen-Ingushetia, Tatarstan and Udmurtia. An attempt by the latter two regions, with their major oil reserves, to break away, would deal an enormous blow to the Russian economy and clearly the Russian regime would not take this lying down.

103. These events illustrate the complexity of the national question in the modern epoch. This is not just the case in the former Stalinist states, but in the ex-colonial countries and increasingly in the advanced capitalist countries. The proletariat will not be able to take power without a correct programme and great skill and sensitivity in approaching the national question. In the former USSR, while the danger of national and ethnic divisions poses an enormous problem for the workers' movement, the national question also enormously aggravates the problems of emerging capitalism. Movements which begin around national demands can under certain conditions acquire a revolutionary, class character. Therefore in appraising these movements, it is necessary to determine their main direction, and separate out what is progressive and what is reactionary within them. In the conflict in Trans-Dneistr, for example, there are elements of a proletarian movement, of workers' militias involving different ethnic groups, against the Moldovan regime and perceived Romanian domination. How far this will develop in the direction of an independent proletarian movement depends upon the subjective factor and whether a Marxist leadership can be created.

104. The task of building workers' organisations in the former USSR is inextricably linked to the development of the national question in all its different forms. When the working class moves forward in struggle, the national question will tend to recede as the class strives for unity. Whereas setbacks, defeats and demoralisation will generally act to strengthen national divisions. The task of Marxism is to fight to overcome these divisions with the programme of workers' democracy and international socialism. This is based upon unity in struggle of workers of all nationalities; opposition to all forms of national oppression; and a steadfast defence of the right of nations to self-determination.

105. The army is a mirror of society, and developments within the former Soviet armed forces reflect the twin processes of economic collapse and national disintegration. The military high command represented the last element of the old Soviet state to hold out against the centrifugal forces in society. At a military conference in January 1992, 71 per cent of the 5,000 officers present voted for the restoration of the borders of the old Soviet Union. This did not reflect a desire to return to the old system based on the planned economy, but a desire to restore their former power and status. The vast majority of senior officers have moved over to a pro-capitalist position.

106. This was already underway before last August's coup. The crushing victory of US forces over Iraq, with their 'smart bombs' and other hi-tech weaponry, accelerated this process. Like every other section of the old bureaucracy they are intent on preserving their privileges and status, which they conclude is only possible on the basis of bourgeois property relations. The shift has been especially sharp among the officer caste because of their humiliation after the retreats from eastern Europe and Afghanistan. Conscious of the colossal weakening of their position relative to US imperialism, they have drawn the conclusion that capitalism represents the only way to rebuild their position.

107. This does not just signify a shift in ideological outlook. The former Red Army has been plunged into a situation of near anarchy with its own infrastructure breaking down under the impact of the economic crisis. 300,000 soldiers are living in temporary accommodation, many in tent cities and disused railway carriages. In Baikonur there was a mutiny by troops at a former Soviet space centre over abysmal living conditions and ill treatment by officers. 35,000 roubles were stolen and three soldiers were killed. Faced with this collapse, sections of the officer caste have attempted to overcome their problems, like every other section of the former bureaucracy, by turning to the 'market' - selling military equipment, medicines and even food. One Moscow company, run by serving naval officers, has already sold 15 submarines belonging to the Black Sea Fleet. In Poland, huge amounts of military equipment have been systematically siphoned off and sold by the CIS forces stationed there. Hundreds of officers serving in Poland have enlisted on private business courses.

108. This process, and the undermining of morale within the armed forces explains why they weren't able to intervene to prevent the break up of the USSR. Despite constant warnings of a new coup attempt from the high command, they have so far been restrained on one hand by fear of the reaction of the masses, with the example of the failed coup still fresh in their minds, and on the other hand because of the explosive force of the national question and its effects within the army itself. To re-establish the old borders would involve the army in countless military conflicts in the republics, leading to splits along ethnic lines within the army. In particular, Ukraine's declaration of independence and its decision to form a separate armed forces, changes the whole equation. Ukraine's size and 55 million population, and the fact that a significant section of the army would have gone over to its defence, meant that an attempt to force it back into a union with Russia would have posed a full scale war.

109. This explains the shift by the military high command and the decision to form a Russian army. This does not mean that intervention against former Soviet republics is excluded. On the contrary, the Russian state has replaced the old central bureaucracy as the decisive power in the region. Military intervention cannot be excluded where the decisive economic and political interests of the nascent Russian bourgeois are threatened. A survey in February 1992 showed that 57 per cent of army officers believe armed conflict is possible between Russia and other republics.

110. They will attempt to camouflage their imperialist aims behind a defence of the 25 million Russians living in the other republics. Not for nothing did Yeltsin offer Russian citizenship for ethnic Russians. It is impossible for the vast majority to return, especially now with the collapse of the Russian economy. But, the fact that these Russian communities occupy areas of key economic importance in the breakaway republics will undoubtedly be exploited by the emerging Russian capitalists. Yeltsin's vice-president, Alexander Rutskoi, has already warned the Baltic republics over their treatment of the Russian minority. In this way, the position of the Russian minority will be used to justify economic and even military sanctions by Russia.

111. While still nominally a unified CIS force, the army was withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh in March 1992, despite the protests of the Armenian regime. The Russian officer caste sought to extricate themselves from the developing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan which they feared could bog them down in a new Afghanistan. However, where significant Russian minorities are involved, as for example in Moldova, it is a different question. At this stage, rather than open military involvement by Russia, Cossack volunteers have moved in to support the Russian and Ukrainian minority there. But Yeltsin's announcement that all former CIS forces, including the troops in Moldova, are now under Russian control is an indication that if necessary, the Russian regime will intervene directly to protect its interests. In this case, while acting ostensibly to defend the Russian minority, the aim of military intervention would be to secure Russian control of the enclave of Trans-Dneistr, the industrial power-house of Moldova.

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